tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 23%

  1. 14:56 PWM → 16:53 PHL
    AA 2354 · American · 1h 57m · 71% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 30mPWM 14:56 to ORD 19:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.