tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Washington via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 16:22 PHL → 19:09 DFW
    AA 2356 · American · 3h 47m · 69% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DFW → 23:59 DCA
    AA 2077 · American · 2h 59m · 64% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 37mPHL 16:22 to DCA 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.