tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Phoenix via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 31%

  1. 15:06 PHL → 16:42 RDU
    AA 2360 · American · 1h 36m · 55% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:47 RDU → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3033 · American · 4h 32m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 13mPHL 15:06 to PHX 19:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.