tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Los Angeles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 19%

  1. 17:22 RDU → 19:01 PHL
    AA 2360 · American · 1h 39m · 47% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:52 PHL → 22:55 LAX
    AA 2197 · American · 6h 03m · 54% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip8h 33mRDU 17:22 to LAX 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.