tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Houston via Philadelphia: arrives on time 26%

  1. 17:22 RDU → 19:01 PHL
    AA 2360 · American · 1h 39m · 47% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 PHL → 22:49 IAH
    AA 3021 · American · 3h 54m · 70% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 27mRDU 17:22 to IAH 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.