tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Seattle via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 19%

  1. 19:31 RDU → 21:43 DFW
    AA 2361 · American · 3h 12m · 49% on time, 8.7% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:41 DFW → 00:57 SEA +1 day
    AA 1487 · American · 4h 16m · 47% on time, 6.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (8.7% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (6.2% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip8h 26mRDU 19:31 to SEA 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.