tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → New York via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:47 MIA → 19:06 RDU
    AA 2375 · American · 2h 19m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 RDU → 22:00 JFK
    AA 4417 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 57m · 57% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 13mMIA 16:47 to JFK 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.