tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → New York via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 31%

  1. 16:47 MIA → 19:06 RDU
    AA 2375 · American · 2h 19m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 RDU → 22:14 LGA
    AA 4560 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 54m · 61% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 27mMIA 16:47 to LGA 22:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.