tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → New York via Charlotte: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:29 RDU → 19:45 CLT
    AA 2379 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 CLT → 23:00 JFK
    AA 1727 · American · 2h 06m · 62% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 31mRDU 18:29 to JFK 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.