tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:29 RDU → 19:45 CLT
    AA 2379 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:34 CLT → 22:00 PHX
    AA 936 · American · 4h 26m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 31mRDU 18:29 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.