tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Madison via New York: arrives on time 22%

  1. 12:30 DFW → 17:05 LGA
    AA 2388 · American · 3h 35m · 42% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 LGA → 19:39 MSN
    AA 4593 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 43m · 73% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 09mDFW 12:30 to MSN 19:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.