tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Birmingham via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 13%

  1. 18:00 LGA → 21:06 DFW
    AA 2388 · American · 4h 06m · 46% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 DFW → 23:46 BHM
    AA 3067 · American · 1h 47m · 37% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip6h 46mLGA 18:00 to BHM 23:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.