tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Tampa via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 14:20 RDU → 16:33 DFW
    AA 2400 · American · 3h 13m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:19 DFW → 20:54 TPA
    AA 844 · American · 2h 35m · 58% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 34mRDU 14:20 to TPA 20:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.