tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:15 RDU → 17:34 CLT
    AA 2402 · American · 1h 19m · 64% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip4h 36mRDU 16:15 to ORD 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.