tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → New York via Miami: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:30 RDU → 19:49 MIA
    AA 2406 · American · 2h 19m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 MIA → 23:44 LGA
    AA 1389 · American · 3h 04m · 58% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 14mRDU 17:30 to LGA 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.