tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Chicago via Miami: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:30 RDU → 19:49 MIA
    AA 2406 · American · 2h 19m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 MIA → 23:30 ORD
    AA 1881 · American · 3h 34m · 53% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip6h 58mRDU 17:30 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.