tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Tampa via Miami: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:30 RDU → 19:49 MIA
    AA 2406 · American · 2h 19m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:48 MIA → 21:57 TPA
    AA 1921 · American · 1h 10m · 59% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 28mRDU 17:30 to TPA 21:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.