tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Miami: arrives on time 50%

  1. 17:30 RDU → 19:49 MIA
    AA 2406 · American · 2h 19m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 MIA → 22:47 PHX
    AA 1968 · American · 4h 42m · 76% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 17mRDU 17:30 to PHX 22:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.