tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Miami: arrives on time 22%

  1. 17:30 RDU → 19:49 MIA
    AA 2406 · American · 2h 19m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MIA → 23:36 SFO
    AA 2426 · American · 6h 00m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip9h 05mRDU 17:30 to SFO 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.