tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 37%

  1. 20:13 RIC → 21:41 CLT
    AA 2412 · American · 1h 28m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:39 CLT → 00:01 ORD +1 day
    AA 3014 · American · 2h 22m · 65% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 48mRIC 20:13 to ORD 00:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.