tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Monterey via Phoenix: arrives on time 73%

  1. 08:15 SFO → 10:22 PHX
    AA 2414 · American · 2h 07m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 21m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:43 PHX → 15:38 MRY
    AA 6268 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 55m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 156 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 21m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 23mSFO 08:15 to MRY 15:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.