tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 12:50 RNO → 14:34 PHX
    AA 2418 · American · 1h 44m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 PHX → 21:30 ORD
    AA 2786 · American · 4h 02m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 42mRNO 12:50 to ORD 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.