tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Austin via Phoenix: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:50 RNO → 14:34 PHX
    AA 2418 · American · 1h 44m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 PHX → 19:43 AUS
    AA 2892 · American · 2h 18m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 53mRNO 12:50 to AUS 19:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.