tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:48 DSM → 18:59 DFW
    AA 2421 · American · 2h 11m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DFW → 21:02 PHX
    AA 1133 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 12.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (12.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 14mDSM 16:48 to PHX 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.