tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:55 ROC → 21:00 CLT
    AA 2424 · American · 2h 05m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:28 CLT → 23:53 DCA
    AA 1269 · American · 1h 26m · 64% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 59mROC 18:55 to DCA 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.