tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 78%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 06:32 PHX
    AA 2434 · American · 3h 32m · 87% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:21 PHX → 09:12 RNO
    AA 1405 · American · 1h 51m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (100%).
Total trip6h 12mORD 05:00 to RNO 09:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.