tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 74%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 06:32 PHX
    AA 2434 · American · 3h 32m · 87% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:12 PHX → 12:04 RNO
    AA 2418 · American · 1h 52m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip9h 04mORD 05:00 to RNO 12:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.