tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Honolulu via Phoenix: arrives on time 74%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 06:32 PHX
    AA 2434 · American · 3h 32m · 87% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 03m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:35 PHX → 12:24 HNL
    AA 693 · American · 6h 44m · 81% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 12h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 78 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 03m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip12h 19mORD 05:00 to HNL 12:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.