tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via Phoenix: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 06:32 PHX
    AA 2434 · American · 3h 32m · 87% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:33 PHX → 09:10 SBA
    AA 4031 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 37m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 10mORD 05:00 to SBA 09:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.