tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Myers → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:24 RSW → 19:54 ORD
    AA 2437 · American · 3h 30m · 33% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 ORD → 00:55 PHL +1 day
    AA 490 · American · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 63 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 48m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 32mRSW 17:24 to PHL 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.