tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Lauderdale → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 17:28 FLL → 19:59 ORD
    AA 2440 · American · 3h 43m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 ORD → 00:11 RIC +1 day
    AA 4511 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 16m · 72% on time, 10.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (10.7% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 43mFLL 17:28 to RIC 00:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.