tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Myers → Buffalo via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 18:24 RSW → 20:59 DCA
    AA 2454 · American · 2h 34m · 66% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DCA → 23:56 BUF
    AA 5054 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 48% on time, 19.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (19.4% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 32mRSW 18:24 to BUF 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.