tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fort Myers → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:24 RSW → 20:59 DCA
    AA 2454 · American · 2h 34m · 66% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 DCA → 23:30 ORD
    AA 4419 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 06mRSW 18:24 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.