tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Minneapolis via Phoenix: arrives on time 38%

  1. 16:23 SAN → 17:49 PHX
    AA 2470 · American · 1h 26m · 59% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 PHX → 23:58 MSP
    AA 3142 · American · 3h 08m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 35mSAN 16:23 to MSP 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.