tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 16:50 DFW → 19:44 ORD
    AA 2474 · American · 2h 54m · 55% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:39 ORD → 23:01 DAY
    AA 4972 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 48% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 11mDFW 16:50 to DAY 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.