tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Miami via San Diego: arrives on time 48%

  1. 10:30 PHX → 11:47 SAN
    AA 2477 · American · 1h 17m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:36 SAN → 20:54 MIA
    AA 2979 · American · 5h 19m · 90% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 25mPHX 10:30 to MIA 20:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.