tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Antonio → Miami via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:32 SAT → 16:38 ORD
    AA 2486 · American · 3h 06m · 60% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 22:17 MIA
    AA 2690 · American · 3h 17m · 45% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 45mSAT 13:32 to MIA 22:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.