tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Antonio → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 13:32 SAT → 16:38 ORD
    AA 2486 · American · 3h 06m · 60% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 28mSAT 13:32 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.