tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 17%

  1. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ORD → 23:58 SFO
    AA 3054 · American · 4h 42m · 32% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip8h 16mCLT 18:26 to SFO 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.