tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:39 ORD → 23:01 DAY
    AA 4972 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 48% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip4h 35mCLT 18:26 to DAY 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.