tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 ORD → 00:11 RIC +1 day
    AA 4511 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 16m · 72% on time, 10.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (10.7% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 45mCLT 18:26 to RIC 00:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.