tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 18%

  1. 19:22 STL → 21:20 DFW
    AA 2491 · American · 1h 58m · 37% on time, 8.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (8.0% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip6h 37mSTL 19:22 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.