tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:04 IAH → 15:30 DFW
    AA 2512 · American · 1h 26m · 49% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:43 DFW → 18:20 SMF
    AA 651 · American · 3h 37m · 57% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 16mIAH 14:04 to SMF 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.