tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 77%

  1. 19:15 SBA → 20:52 PHX
    AA 2515 · American · 1h 37m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 58m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 00:50 PHX → 06:25 ORD +1 day
    AA 1148 · American · 3h 35m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 193 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 58m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip9h 10mSBA 19:15 to ORD 06:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.