tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 13:58 SEA → 20:26 ORD
    AA 2520 · American · 4h 36m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 ORD → 00:55 PHL +1 day
    AA 490 · American · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 58mSEA 13:58 to PHL 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.