tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 13:58 SEA → 20:26 ORD
    AA 2520 · American · 4h 36m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 ORD → 23:59 AUS
    AA 935 · American · 2h 43m · 45% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip8h 01mSEA 13:58 to AUS 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.