tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → El Paso via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 13:58 SEA → 20:26 ORD
    AA 2520 · American · 4h 36m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:46 ELP
    AA 3895 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 26m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 48mSEA 13:58 to ELP 23:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.