tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 50%

  1. 13:58 SEA → 20:26 ORD
    AA 2520 · American · 4h 36m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 34m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 ORD → 00:30 CVG +1 day
    AA 4776 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 74% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 49 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 34m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 32mSEA 13:58 to CVG 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.