tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Cleveland via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 10:22 SEA → 16:53 ORD
    AA 2523 · American · 4h 28m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:39 ORD → 20:14 CLE
    AA 3466 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 33m · 72% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 50mSEA 10:22 to CLE 20:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.