tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Columbus via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 10:22 SEA → 16:53 ORD
    AA 2523 · American · 4h 28m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:46 ORD → 20:25 CMH
    AA 4337 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 61% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 03mSEA 10:22 to CMH 20:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.